3/09/10

Futures and Option Fund Position for the close of 3/09 (daily change)
C +28,800 (-7,000), B -15,100 (-2,000), W -64,700 (-3,000), M +18,000 (0), BO +12,500 (-1,000)

Overnight Volume---c 17,923, b 5,367, w 1,813, m 2,610, oil 3,088, oats 36, Total 30,837.

Weather--check the 6-10 outlook here and the 8-14 day outlook here

Argentina Showers occurred in La Pampa and far western Buenos Aires yesterday. Amounts were 0.10 to 1.25?, with coverage of 15% for corn and 10% for soybeans. Showers will favor Buenos Aires today, with dry weather expected tomorrow. Showers will develop in northern Cordoba, northern Santa Fe, and far northern growing areas on Thursday and Friday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.25?, with coverage of 30% for corn and soybeans through Saturday.

 

Brazil: Showers occurred in northern Mato Grosso, northern Goias, far northern Minas Gerais, and western Bahia yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.0?, locally 2.0?, with coverage of 20% for corn and soybeans (35% coverage of northern states).

- The heaviest showers will favor northern and western Mato Grosso, far northern Goias, southern Bahia, and northern Minas

Gerais this week. Light showers will be possible along the east coast of Brazil. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5?, locally 3.0?, with

coverage of 50% for corn and soybeans through Saturday (65% coverage on northern states).

 

Quote of the Day: ?The difference between failure and success is doing a thing nearly right and doing a thing exactly right.?

Historic Fund Positions

	Max Long	Date	Max Short	Date
Corn	333,156 (322,851)	01/23/07 (01/16/07)	-114,265(-114,037)	2/8/05 (2/1/05)
Bean	137,780 (134,912)	12/11/07 (7/20/07)	-78,161 (-75,759)	2/8/05 (2/1/05)
Wheat	39,021 (35,443)	4/09/04 (1/23/04)	-74,767 (-69,122)	2/09/10 (09/08/09)
Meal	77,636(74,253)	12/11/07(12/04/07)	-43,052 (-33,531)	2/8/05 (2/1/05)
Oil	82,078 (77,816)	2/20/04 (2/13/04)	-41,260 (-38,849)	7/21/09 (7/27/99)
Oats	7,396 (7,014)	6/19/07(7/21/06)	-2,363	3/16/99

 

 

 

 

Market Comments for 3/9/10…3:00pm...Look for two sided trade tonight awaiting the USDA S&D report tomorrow morning. Markets were lower on outside market weakness, larger South American crop production estimates, favorable forecasts of spring weather and dwindling export demand out of the US.

 

News

…Funds sold 3,000 wheat, 7,000 corn, 2,000 beans, 1,000 oil and even meal.

…Late CIF was steady to slightly better for beans and corn.

…The bio-diesel tax credit was suppose to be voted on today in the jobs bill before the Senate.

…USDA monthly S&D tomorrow morning.

…World Equities: Australia +0.20%, China +0.52%, Hong Kong +0.05%, Japan -0.17%, Germany +0.17%, England -0.08%.

…Outside markets: crude -$0.58, gold -$3.70, euro +30, euro/yen cross -76, dollar index +10.00, S&P +3.00, Dow +20.

 

Full Carry Sheet

Basis and Freight Table 3/8/10 4:00pm---Daily Change

Market	CIF C Mar		CIF B Mar	Dec C	Dec B	IR	StL	OR
Value	34/37k	54/60k		-4k	+2k	310/320	260/275	265/275
Change	-1	+1		-	+2	-10	-10	-15

 

Commitment of Traders (futures and options included in Supplemental Report)

3/2/10	Funds	Change	Estimate	Index	Change
Corn	+43,764	+25,659	+18,100	+454,113	+6,846
Beans	-14,119	-2,547	-1,600	+170,571	+605
Wheat	-59,701	-10,973	-65,200	+216,764	+1,030
Meal	+19,025	-9,510	+20,700	-	-
Oil	+11,453	+6,093	+12,400	+103,099	+5,341

 

Commitment of Traders (futures and options included in the Disaggregated Report)

3/2/10	Managed Money	Change	Estimate	Swap Dealer	Change
Corn	+76,693	+11,826	+65,000	+384,565	-422
Beans	+35,162	+7,668	+37,000	+138,696	+6,199
Wheat	-34,168	+2,666	-53,000	+174,332	+60
Meal	+21,758	-7,063	+20,000	+45	-555
Oil	+34,756	+8,954	+32,000	+100,752	+7,275

 

 

 

Prod.	Jan. #	Avg Est	Range	Nov. #	2008
Corn	13.151	12.819	12.500-12.996	12.921	12.101
Beans	3.361	3.337	3.219-3.420	3.319	2.967
Yield
Corn	165.2	162.5	160-164.5	162.9	153.9
Beans	44	43.4	40-44.7	43.3	39.7
Plantings					2009
Winter	37.1	40.916	38.4-43.5	-	43.311
HRW	27.8	30.414	29-31.6	-	31.649
SRW	5.9	6.975	5.9-8.1	-	8.309
WW	3.3	3.505	3.2-4.5	-	3.353
Stocks				9/1/09	12/1/08
Corn	10.934	10.663	10.1-11.4	1.674	10.078
Beans	2.337	2.411	2.37-2.45	138	2.276
Wheat	1.765	1.760	1.70-1.81	2.215	1.422

 

World crop #’s, Argentine corn +2.2 mmt to 17.2, Argentine beans unch at 53 mmt, Brazil beans up 1 mmt to 66 mmt.

09/10 S/D	Feb. #	Avg Est	Jan. #	World mmt
Corn	1.719	1.748	1,764	134 (-2.2)
Beans	210	219	245	59.73 (-.07)
Wheat	981	973	976	195.9 (+.03)
Meal	300,000	-	300,000	5.76 (+.63)
Oil	2.227	-	2.152	2.73 (+.19)
Oats	69	-	69

 

NWS observed precip site

Five day precip forecast by the NWS

See the USDA maps for major world crop areas here

Climate tables for the Midwest.

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