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Untitled Document
7/8/08
Futures and Option Fund Position for the close of 7/08 (daily change)
C +173,600 (-15,000), B +90,800 (-4,000), W -20,800 (-1,000),
M +63,100 (-2,000), BO +20,300 (-3,000)
Deliveries: B 0 (6/17),
SM 1 (6/13), BO 0 (6/27), C 88 (7/3), W 145 (6/26), Oat 18 (7/3)
Overnight
Volume Table ---C 44,212,
S 12,782, W 3,730, SM 5,953, BO 4,554, Oats 215, Total 71,446
Weather---check the 6-10
outlook here and the 8-14
day outlook here
US Midwest--Thundershowers were significant
in eastern ND, central and eastern IA, north-central KS, far southeastern MN,
southern WI, west-central MI, northeastern MO, east-central and northwestern
IL, and west-central and south-central IN yesterday. Amounts were 0.50 to 1.5",
locally up to 3.0", with 25% coverage. Thundershowers continue into Wednesday
in the south, while scattered activity shifts to far northern and eastern areas
on Friday and Saturday. Amounts will total 0.50 to 2.0", locally up to
5.0", with
50% coverage of soybeans and 45% of corn through the rest of the week.
Australia--Scattered showers favored southeastern
South Australia, Victoria, eastern New South Wales, and southeastern Queensland
yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.25" with 35% coverage. Showers should
continue across southeastern South Australia, Victoria, and far southern New
South Wales through Thursday. A few showers will also be possible in southwestern
Western Australia from Thursday through Saturday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.25"
with 45% coverage.
Quote of the Day - "How much was spent
on the 740 books and three maps ordered in 1800 to establish what was to become
the U.S. library of Congress?"
Answer from yesterday: Barbara Walters
Historic Fund Positions
| |
Max Long |
Date |
Max Short |
Date |
| Corn |
333,156 (322,851) |
01/23/07 (01/16/07) |
-114,265(-114,037) |
2/8/05 (2/1/05) |
| Bean |
137,780 (134,912) |
12/11/07 (7/20/07) |
-78,161 (-75,759) |
2/8/05 (2/1/05) |
| Wheat |
39,021 (35,443) |
4/09/04 (1/23/04) |
-58,011 (-53,700) |
12/06/05 (11/29/05) |
| Meal |
77,636(74,253) |
12/11/07(12/04/07) |
-43,052 (-33,531) |
2/8/05 (2/1/05) |
| Oil |
82,078 (77,816) |
2/20/04 (2/13/04) |
-38,849 (-36,015) |
7/27/99 |
| Oats |
7,396 (7,014) |
6/19/07(7/21/06) |
-2,363 |
3/16/99 |
|
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Market Comments for 7/8/08 4:00pm
- Funds sold 1,000 wheat, 15,000 corn, 4,000 soybeans, 2,000
meal and 3,000 soyoil.
- CIF corn is firmer, beans weaker.
- Weather forecasts are cooler and drier in 6-10 day, cooler
and wetter in the 11-15 day.
- Crude oil closed down $5.47, Gold down $8.10 and the dollar
index closed up 31.
- November beans closed below the 20-day moving average for
the first time since May 7th. Next chart support is $14.73 3/4.
- December corn closed below the 20-day moving average for
the first time since May 30th.
- Calls for tonight are steady-easier
Daily
Charts as of 4:00pm
Full
Carry Sheet
Basis and Freight 7/8/08 12:00pm (Green indicates
increased, red indicates decline, black
indicates no change in values)
Truck Decatur IL values--corn cu-33, beans sx+15...CIF
values---Jul cu+24/26 (up 1), Jul
sq+62/67 (dn 3)...Barge freight--IR 550/575%,
StL 400/425%, OR 450/475%,
Mid-Miss 575/600%...
Weekly Sales and Inspections
Inspections (estimates in mil. bu) 7/7/08
c 32.4 (30-35), b 9.1 (8-12), w 18.4 (15-20)
Export
Sales (estimates in 000 tons) 7/3/08 c 325.9/302.5 new (300-700) , b 465.9 old/176.5
new (325-525), w 668 (200-600), m 158.1 old (25-125), oil 6.1 (0-15)
June
S & D |
Ending
Carryout 07/08 |
Avg Est. |
World
c/o |
Ending
Carryout 08/09 |
Avg
Est |
World
c/o |
| Corn |
1.433 |
1.424 |
109.7 |
673 |
736 |
103.3 |
| Beans |
125 |
134 |
49.3 |
175 |
180 |
50.4 |
| Wheat |
254 |
241 |
115.1 |
487 |
496 |
132.1 |
| Meal |
300 |
- |
- |
300 |
- |
- |
| Oil |
2.792 |
- |
- |
2.679 |
- |
- |
| Oats |
45 |
- |
- |
47 |
- |
- |
| Wheat Production |
Actual |
Avg |
Range |
2007 |
| Winter W |
1.817 |
1.813 |
1.774-1.850 |
1.516 |
| HRW |
1.030 |
1.038 |
1.000-1.073 |
962 |
| SRW |
572 |
562 |
550-605 |
358 |
| WW |
216 |
213 |
190-228 |
197 |
| Plantings |
6/30/08 |
Average |
Range |
3/31/08 |
| Corn |
87.3 |
85.321 |
79.6-87.4 |
86.014 |
| Beans |
74.5 |
74.203 |
72-76 |
74.793 |
| Winter W |
63.5 |
46.986 |
56.6-49.1 |
46.84 |
| Spring W |
14.2 |
14.321 |
14.1-14.5 |
14.333 |
| Durum |
2.66 |
2.616 |
2.5-2.7 |
2.63 |
| All Wheat |
63.5 |
63.818 |
63.5-64 |
63.8 |
| Cotton |
9.25 |
8.89 |
8.45-9.21 |
9.39 |
| Grain Stocks |
|
|
|
|
| Corn |
4.028 |
3.925 |
3.55-4.33 |
6.859 |
| Beans |
.676 |
.669 |
.615-.743 |
1.428 |
| Wheat |
.306 |
.278 |
.247-.461 |
.456 |
Commitment of Traders
as
of 7/1 |
Funds
w/opts |
Fund Chg |
Estimate |
Index |
Index Chg |
| corn |
+184,572 |
-1,761 |
+190,300 |
+417,279 |
-11,031 |
beans |
+92,790 |
+5,389 |
+101,400 |
+168,957 |
+100 |
| wheat |
-19,790 |
+3,514 |
20,300 |
+177,817 |
-1,411 |
meal |
+63,141 |
+7,292 |
+68,700 |
- |
- |
oil |
+25,302 |
+1,077 |
+30,200 |
+72,687 |
+2,594 |
NWS
observed precip site
Five
day precip forecast by the NWS
See the new USDA maps for major US crop areas...Link
here for corn...Link
here for soybeans...
Climate tables---% of normal precip in the last seven days
for the Midwest
and for the High
Plains.
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